Value Betting

The Mathematical Edge

The Stabler provides selections based on our home-grown speed ratings, analysis of the form book and then ensuring what we perceive to be the percentage or probability of winning the race against the offered starting price of the prospective selection. This process is what we call Value Betting and our entire system is based upon this principle. 

For those of you that play poker, Implied odds are essentially an extension of pot odds used in poker logic when assessing how valuable a drawing hand is. While pot odds are the ratio between the size of the bet and the size of the pot, implied odds include a prediction of what will happen on future streets of the hand in terms of how much you can win on average. In other words, how much do we need to bet to warrant a long-term profit based on mathematical odds.

Although this example is specific to poker and factors in potential bets on future betting rounds and assessing those specific situations, we draw similar delineations here at The Stabler. We are thinking statistically and applying logic curated by our speed ratings for all future bets to encourage a long-term profit.  

Or another example.

Similar to rolling a fair six-sided dice. If one were offered 9/2 on a six coming up then one would be foolish to take the bet. But, on the other hand, if one were offered 11/2 on a six coming up then, rightly, there should be a queue around the block to take on what should be a 5/1 bet.

Of course, not every value bet will come off. What it does mean is that the eventual payout will be more and compensate for the losing bets.

What is important is the golden rule: if one doesn't have a value advantage in a bet then don't take it. No bet should ever be taken without an advantage.

This is why our selection process targets largely favorites that range from odds-on to a maximum Starting Price of 11/2. The liability remains small in our selection process but we rely on highly competitive fields and data to maximise our chances of turning out a long-term profit. 

This is also why the vast majority of our selections is based on the flat and not the fences - The times are more consistent and reliable. In fact the All-Weather tracks provide the greatest level of profit here at The Stabler between 5F sprints and 1M 4F. 

The Stabler Guideline

It is extremely important that as a customer to The Stabler, you adhere to our selection process rigidly. 

For example; we send out a tip at 10AM and with that we will provide a maximum laying SP for that particular selection. It could be 4/7, 2/1, or it could be 11/2 - what you must understand is that the maximum SP we provide is based on the analysis of the form-book, our speed ratings and value betting as articulated above for that particular selection.

 

The horses's form, the competition and validity of the field has been analysed that therefore the maximum SP is based on that set criteria. Laying over these recommended SP's will risk your long-term profitability using our service. Laying just one-point more on average across all selections would mark a significant reduction in income. It is imperative therefore to follow these rules rigidly. 

When signing up or registering to The Stabler, you will receive an information package regarding our selection process and how to leverage the Exchanges effectively. It is also important to note that here at The Stabler, we WILL experience losing months and/or quarters. We will repeat this again, we WILL experience losing months and/or quarters. It is absolutely inevitable because our selection criteria is based on competition of a given race.

 

Gambling For Entertainment

Back in 2017 we experienced 5 winning horses in one day (and 4 of these looked comfortable in doing so). For customers in the local area at that time, that was a significant loss for the day, week, month quarter and eventual year but we were able to recuperate those losses by betting professionally and not emotionally. Jim, the head of form analysis and selections here at The Stabler bets a significant amount of money on each selection at The Stabler and understands that a day like that in 2017 will probably rear it's ugly head again in the future. That's where bankroll management is also imperative and only betting what you can afford to lose. 

The Stabler does not endorse problem gambling or ever betting on selections with unacceptable liabilities for that individuals bankroll. It also does not try to be a primary, secondary or tertiary source of income and must be used as a guide, reference and form of entertainment on behalf of the individual. 

Try this questionnaire to ascertain if you are gambling outside your means. 

  • Do you bet more than you can afford to lose?

  • Do you need to gamble with larger amounts of money to get the same feeling?

  • Have you tried to win back money you have lost (chasing losses)?

  • Have you borrowed money or sold anything to get money to gamble?

  • Have you wondered whether you have a problem with gambling?

  • Has your gambling caused you any health problems, including feelings of stress or anxiety?

  • Have other people criticised your betting or told you that you had a gambling problem 

  • Has your gambling caused any financial problems for you or your household?

  • Have you ever felt guilty about the way you gamble or what happens when you gamble?

Score 0 for each time you answer "never"
Score 1 for each time you answer "sometimes"
Score 2 for each time you answer "most of the time"
Score 3 for each time you answer "almost always"

If your total score is 8 or higher, you may be a problem gambler.

 

Help For Problem Gamblers

There's evidence that gambling can be successfully treated in the same way as other addictions. Cognitive behavioural therapy usually has the best results.

Treatment and support groups are available for people who want to stop gambling:

GamCare GamCare offers free information, support and counselling for problem gamblers in the UK.

It runs the National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133) and also offers face-to-face counselling.

National Problem Gambling Clinic If you live in England or Wales, are aged 16 or over and have complex problems related to gambling, you can refer yourself to this specialist NHS clinic for problem gamblers.

See if you meet the criteria for this service.

Gordon Moody Association The Gordon Moody Association offers residential courses for men and women who have problems with gambling – email help@gordonmoody.org.uk or call 01384 241292 to find out more.

It also runs the Gambling Therapy website, which offers online support to problem gamblers and their friends and family.

Gamblers Anonymous UK Gamblers Anonymous UK runs local support groups that use the same 12-step approach to recovery from addiction as Alcoholics Anonymous. There are also GamAnon support groups for friends and family.

Do:

  • pay important bills, such as your mortgage, on payday before you gamble

  • spend more time with family and friends who don't gamble

  • deal with your debts rather than ignoring them – visit the National Debtline for tips

Don't:

  • view gambling as a way to make money – try to see it as entertainment instead

  • bottle up your worries about your gambling – talk to someone

  • take credit cards with you when you go gambling

For more self-help tips, see the Royal College of Psychiatrists website.

If you're having problems because of another person's gambling, it's best to be honest with them about it. They need to know how their behaviour is affecting you.

Support is also available to people who are worried about someone else's gambling:

GamCare Gamcare offers support and information for partners, friends and family of people who gamble compulsively.

GamAnon
Local support groups for anyone affected by someone else's gambling problem – find your nearest group.

Please be sensible and enjoy our service. Do not use it as a supplementary source of income. If you feel like you have any of the above patterns then contact us immediately, speak to your friends and family, give the helpline a call and get help. Don't be ashamed to be honest with yourself and the people closest to you. 

We feel very strongly about this, it is serious - please please please adhere to the above at all times. 

Image by Noah Silliman