The Stabler Speed Ratings

What are speed ratings and why do we use them?

Speed ratings have been procured over the last 30 years to solve a very simple but yet complex challenge. To accurately capture the speed of a racehorse on a given race taking into consideration wind speed, wind direction, weather, going, weight carried, racetrack, class form, starting stall and pace. All of these variables are then incorporated into a single tangent which is a speed rating for that particular racehorse. 

This system which was originally created based upon Nick Mordin's 'Mordin On Time' has progressed and evolved with a multitude of additional variables which are predominantly based on:

- Average times over a standards of Going

- Average times for a particular Class

- Time at a particular Racetrack. 

As mentioned above, we have discovered that one of the major handicapping tools that most punters leverage, the Official Race Class, has many unpredictable variables attached to it. We don't use the official race class figures but have developed our very own over the years. Even though it is not 100% accurate it does give us an accurate enough calculation that allows us to make a predictable outcome.

From what we have seen from the multitude of different systems, rating algorithms and logics - TheStabler continues to provide profitable income using these ratings, form analysis, value betting and consistency provided by the team.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Ratings

The ratings come in a number of formats; each with a different view on things.

The first are the Detailed Ratings which is the full list of all included variables that include:

 

m/f - Gender.
Stl - Stall Number.
Horse - Horse's Name.
Days - Days Since Last Run.
Runs - Runs.
w/r/c - Wins, Recent Wins and Course Wins.
Age - Age of the horse.
Wt - Weight.
SP - Forecast Starting Price.

RATING - Final Rating.
Stl% - Stall Bias.
Regr g/d - Regression for going and distance.
WtD - Weight Delta.

WnDd - Wind Direction 
WnDs - Win Speed

Raw - Raw Rating.
Jockey - Jockey Rating.
Trainer - Trainer Rating.
TrForm - Trainer Form.
Lst - Previous Race Form.
Cls - Change in class.
Raw - Raw Speed Rating
Spd - Adjusted Speed Rating.
Alm - Alarms and Indicators.
CPos - Class Predicted Position.
Value - Value Price.

There is another document,that is then procured which is the 'Summary Ratings' which is a collection of ratings for the upcoming meeting(s) on a particular day.  This document provides a quick overview and shortlists specific selections for an upcoming meeting - it is this algorithm that provides the filters required and is the first part of our 4 key strategic pillars at The Stabler. 

Not all variables such as the ones listed above are constant or equal. In fact, many of the variables and distinctions listed above have been heavily criticised by racing pundits over the years in other forms of speed-rating analysis as being redundant or irrelevant - At least not beneficial to the rating curator in accurately estimating the probability of a given race.

 

What speed ratings do provide us with however is a guide. A guide to some key components to a given race that is factual and can be tracked in a numeric value. When we combine these Stats to comprehensive horse-form analysis we begin to formulate our own interpretation of a betting market for each particular horse within a given race. 

Based on these statistics, we then look for a race that has a high level of competitive steeds with similar previous times based upon similar distances, courses, going and environmental factors. When we have the market provide a price with what we perceive to be a value bet relevant to liability exposure then we have a prospective selection. 

Although you receive a brief explanation to each selection and its criteria on a daily basis, this is how we essentially differentiate ourselves to other 'Tipster' service to provide the winning formula.

 

 

 

 

Value Betting

The Stabler provides selections based on our home-grown speed ratings, analysis of the form book and then ensuring what we perceive to be the percentage or probability of winning the race against the offered starting price of the prospective selection. This process is what we call Value Betting and our entire system is based upon this principle. 

For those of you that play poker, Implied odds are essentially an extension of pot odds used in poker math when assessing how valuable a drawing hand is. While pot odds are the ratio between the size of the bet and the size of the pot, implied odds include a prediction of what will happen on future streets of the hand in terms of how much you can win on average. In other words, how much do we need to bet to warrant a long-term profit based on mathematical odds.

Or another example.

Similar to rolling a fair six-sided dice. If one were offered 9/2 on a six coming up then one would be foolish to take the bet. But, on the other hand, if one were offered 11/2 on a six coming up then, rightly, there should be a queue around the block to take on what should be a 5/1 bet.

For more information regarding The Stabler betting system and Implied Odds please visit here. 

Image by Jean Gerber
Image by Joshua Adams